August 13, 2009

Florida Gators Football - Projecting the Offfensive Statistics

Today I've decided to do some serious extrapolation for the Florida Gators football team.

Based on some seriously complex calculations (I used to be an engineering major), I've come up with a great projection of the statistics the Florida Gators can expect to see during the 2009 season.

Obviously, some of these factors were subjective, so feel free to disagree or call me out on certain aspects. All of these are of course subject to change, as guys can get injured, redshirt, or other freshmen I expect to redshirt could see the field.

Note that these are only a rough projection, and they are strictly to kill some time before the season starts. Still, I thought it would be an interesting look at what we can expect and would make for some good reading, if nothing else.

Here are the projected stats as a whole. I'll explain a bit about these below.

Also, some things are definitely out of whack, due to some faulty calculations. For instance, I highly doubt Tebow's completion percentage jumps over 10%. Also, Brandon James was not included on this list due to a completely horrible oversight on my part. If I get a chance to later, I'll try to update the predictions.

Passing Statistics
YearCompletionsAttemptsCompletion %YardsYPATDs
Rushing Statistics
Receiving Statistics

Okay, now here are my thoughts on these projected statistics. As you can see, they are very similar to last years, but differ in a couple places.

Overall, I think the Florida Gators football team suffers an extremely slight drop of offensive output during the 2009 season.

These calculations put the Gators at roughly 41 points per game of offensive production. Now, that does not take into account field goals, which I estimate the Gators will have a few more of during the 2009 season as a result of the departures of Percy Harvin, Louis Murphy and some key offensive linemen.

With those added in (I'm thinking about 15 through the course of the season), the Gators are up to roughly 45 points per game.

I also expect our defense to score 8-10 touchdowns during the season, as well as a potential safety or two. That brings the total pretty close to 50 points per game, for what it's worth.

Now, those figures won't matter in the player projections you see below, but they do help to give a bit of a better idea of where I'm coming from.

As far as the actual production goes, here's my thinking. I think the balance of the offense will shift more towards the passing game this year. Without a real threat like Percy Harvin to key in on, the Gators should realize quickly that spreading the ball around is definitely to our advantage, as we could clearly see when Percy Harvin missed games during his career here.

After all, the Gators were 7-0 and played some of their best offense without Percy. Still, there's no denying the unique playmaking ability that Harvin had.

As a result, I've shifted the averages per play somewhat, reflecting that our offense won't be quite as explosive as it was a year ago. Instead, I think we'll see a much more efficient attack this season.

That explains the drop you see in the Yards per Attempt category from last year to this year. Right along that stat category, you'll see that I expect the Gators to throw it around a bit more this year. There are a couple of reasons for that expectation.

First off, without Percy Harvin in the backfield, I think the running game will get slowed down a bit more than we saw last season. This could force the Gators into a few more third and long situations. On these type plays, I see a lot of short stuff in the passing game. Tebow will be much more efficient, but probably won't produce as many big plays in the passing game.

This is the reason for the spike in the passing numbers, while also accounting for a slight drop in both rushing attempts and yards. While the rushing average remains about the same around 6.0 yards per carry, the yards per pass attempt drop rather significantly, from 14 to roughly 11.5. This reflects the more efficient short game passing attack.

I'm sure you will have plenty of questions, and I'm here to answer them. Like I said, I expect that these numbers are far from perfect, but I do think they're a good approximation of what we can expect. Get back to me with your thoughts and comments.

So, without any further adieu, here are your projected player statistics for the Florida Gators football team during the 2009 season:

PlayerCompletionsAttemptsCompletion %YardsYPATDs
Tim Tebow23430776.227438.9326
John Brantley375468.53917.246
Joe Haden4666.76611.00
Jeff Demps1489036.1011
Chris Rainey1277215.686
Tim Tebow775346.94 11
Emmanuel Moody823334.063
Andre Debose212039.671
Deonte Thompson1919110.052
Joe Haden7466.570
Chris Scott23371.612
John Brantley7233.291
T.J. Pridemore393.001
Riley Cooper4266115.744
Deonte Thompson3247214.753
Aaron Hernandez474679.947
David Nelson3133310.744
Carl Moore2222110.053
Frankie Hammond Jr.922124.562
Andre Debose1919310.162
Jeff Demps1617210.752
T.J. Lawrence161589.882
Chris Rainey131179.001
Justin Williams7598.430
T.J. Pridemore6386.332
Emmanuel Moody4235.750
Omarius Hines3217.000
Desmond Parks4194.750
Paul Wilson2178.500
Rick Burgess284.000

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