Based on some seriously complex calculations (I used to be an engineering major), I've come up with a great projection of the statistics the Florida Gators can expect to see during the 2009 season.
Obviously, some of these factors were subjective, so feel free to disagree or call me out on certain aspects. All of these are of course subject to change, as guys can get injured, redshirt, or other freshmen I expect to redshirt could see the field.
Note that these are only a rough projection, and they are strictly to kill some time before the season starts. Still, I thought it would be an interesting look at what we can expect and would make for some good reading, if nothing else.
Here are the projected stats as a whole. I'll explain a bit about these below.
Also, some things are definitely out of whack, due to some faulty calculations. For instance, I highly doubt Tebow's completion percentage jumps over 10%. Also, Brandon James was not included on this list due to a completely horrible oversight on my part. If I get a chance to later, I'll try to update the predictions.Passing Statistics Year Completions Attempts Completion % Yards YPA TDs 2008 211 329 64.1 2995 9.10 33 2009 275 367 74.9 3200 8.72 32 Rushing Statistics Year Carries Yards YPC TDs 2008 545 3235 5.94 42 2009 500 3000 6.00 38 Receiving Statistics Year Receptions Yards YPR TDs 2008 211 2995 14.19 33 2009 275 3200 11.64 32
Okay, now here are my thoughts on these projected statistics. As you can see, they are very similar to last years, but differ in a couple places.
Overall, I think the Florida Gators football team suffers an extremely slight drop of offensive output during the 2009 season.
These calculations put the Gators at roughly 41 points per game of offensive production. Now, that does not take into account field goals, which I estimate the Gators will have a few more of during the 2009 season as a result of the departures of Percy Harvin, Louis Murphy and some key offensive linemen.
With those added in (I'm thinking about 15 through the course of the season), the Gators are up to roughly 45 points per game.
I also expect our defense to score 8-10 touchdowns during the season, as well as a potential safety or two. That brings the total pretty close to 50 points per game, for what it's worth.
Now, those figures won't matter in the player projections you see below, but they do help to give a bit of a better idea of where I'm coming from.
As far as the actual production goes, here's my thinking. I think the balance of the offense will shift more towards the passing game this year. Without a real threat like Percy Harvin to key in on, the Gators should realize quickly that spreading the ball around is definitely to our advantage, as we could clearly see when Percy Harvin missed games during his career here.
After all, the Gators were 7-0 and played some of their best offense without Percy. Still, there's no denying the unique playmaking ability that Harvin had.
As a result, I've shifted the averages per play somewhat, reflecting that our offense won't be quite as explosive as it was a year ago. Instead, I think we'll see a much more efficient attack this season.
That explains the drop you see in the Yards per Attempt category from last year to this year. Right along that stat category, you'll see that I expect the Gators to throw it around a bit more this year. There are a couple of reasons for that expectation.
First off, without Percy Harvin in the backfield, I think the running game will get slowed down a bit more than we saw last season. This could force the Gators into a few more third and long situations. On these type plays, I see a lot of short stuff in the passing game. Tebow will be much more efficient, but probably won't produce as many big plays in the passing game.
This is the reason for the spike in the passing numbers, while also accounting for a slight drop in both rushing attempts and yards. While the rushing average remains about the same around 6.0 yards per carry, the yards per pass attempt drop rather significantly, from 14 to roughly 11.5. This reflects the more efficient short game passing attack.
I'm sure you will have plenty of questions, and I'm here to answer them. Like I said, I expect that these numbers are far from perfect, but I do think they're a good approximation of what we can expect. Get back to me with your thoughts and comments.
So, without any further adieu, here are your projected player statistics for the Florida Gators football team during the 2009 season:Passing Player Completions Attempts Completion % Yards YPA TDs Tim Tebow 234 307 76.2 2743 8.93 26 John Brantley 37 54 68.5 391 7.24 6 Joe Haden 4 6 66.7 66 11.0 0 Rushing Player Carries Yards YPC TDs Jeff Demps 148 903 6.10 11 Chris Rainey 127 721 5.68 6 Tim Tebow 77 534 6.94 11 Emmanuel Moody 82 333 4.06 3 Andre Debose 21 203 9.67 1 Deonte Thompson 19 191 10.05 2 Joe Haden 7 46 6.57 0 Chris Scott 23 37 1.61 2 John Brantley 7 23 3.29 1 T.J. Pridemore 3 9 3.00 1 Receiving Player Receptions Yards YPR TDs Riley Cooper 42 661 15.74 4 Deonte Thompson 32 472 14.75 3 Aaron Hernandez 47 467 9.94 7 David Nelson 31 333 10.74 4 Carl Moore 22 221 10.05 3 Frankie Hammond Jr. 9 221 24.56 2 Andre Debose 19 193 10.16 2 Jeff Demps 16 172 10.75 2 T.J. Lawrence 16 158 9.88 2 Chris Rainey 13 117 9.00 1 Justin Williams 7 59 8.43 0 T.J. Pridemore 6 38 6.33 2 Emmanuel Moody 4 23 5.75 0 Omarius Hines 3 21 7.00 0 Desmond Parks 4 19 4.75 0 Paul Wilson 2 17 8.50 0 Rick Burgess 2 8 4.00 0
No comments:
Post a Comment